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Have you all seen AT&T's 4th Quarter Results?!!

bkw79

Jan 24, 2008, 9:43 AM
2.7 million Net Adds!!!! More than any other wireless customer. I'm not a big fan of the Iphone, but the true power of the Iphone is finally realized by a 2.7 million customer net add. Now, I'm absolutely sure that Verizon's kicking themselves after turning down Apple's offer of the Iphone. The Iphone single-handedly brought in more than 50% of that 2.7milli. Anyone have any ideas of how Verizon fared this past quarter?
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Sprint_Dew

Jan 24, 2008, 9:57 AM
The last article I read verizon did very well, 1.9 million estimate. i don't care for the iphone personally, bunch of I wanna be cool too sheep's!
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sangyup81

Jan 24, 2008, 10:15 AM
Yeah but if you're at&t, you're loving the iPhone.

And I have to admit, it's a really good device mostly because of Safari.
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Sprint_Dew

Jan 24, 2008, 10:26 AM
Definitely the browser ability is very nice, I've used it with wifi on my ipod touch but I still don't care for the iphone! Each to his own, but ATT is doing very well with it, amazing quarter!
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mitchell1

Jan 24, 2008, 10:37 AM
bkw79 said:
2.7 million Net Adds!!!! More than any other wireless customer. I'm not a big fan of the Iphone, but the true power of the Iphone is finally realized by a 2.7 million customer net add. Now, I'm absolutely sure that Verizon's kicking themselves after turning down Apple's offer of the Iphone. The Iphone single-handedly brought in more than 50% of that 2.7milli. Anyone have any ideas of how Verizon fared this past quarter?

how much of the adds was from buying out cellular one.
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sangyup81

Jan 24, 2008, 10:47 AM
They don't count those
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dave73

Jan 24, 2008, 2:15 PM
sangyup81 said:
They don't count those


If you look at the posting further down, most the increase was from the purchase of Dobsen. Once the sale of Unicel is complete to Verizon Wireless, AT&T will be adding customers to areas that Verizon would be forced to divest. If Dobsen weren't included, it would likely be just around 1 million subscribers. Remember, the sale closed before the 4th quarter ended to include Dobsen into the sale.
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RUFF1415

Jan 24, 2008, 7:36 PM
Acquisition numbers are never included in gross or net adds. Dobson's numbers would only be included in a seperate, pro-forma release. The 2.7 million net adds were purely organic.
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chainmail311

Jan 24, 2008, 8:43 PM
especially since Apple reports 4 million iPhones sold in 200 days.
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Daniel80

Jan 29, 2008, 12:52 AM
Organic? does that mean the net adds are better for my health?
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RUFF1415

Jan 29, 2008, 1:01 AM
Your sense of humor is priceless! And so is my sarcasm... 🙄
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mitchell1

Jan 24, 2008, 2:54 PM
sangyup81 said:
They don't count those

why is it in the count then. all 1.7 million.
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RUFF1415

Jan 24, 2008, 7:37 PM
It's not.
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chocolateman85006

Jan 25, 2008, 4:15 PM
mitchell1 said:
bkw79 said:
2.7 million Net Adds!!!! More than any other wireless customer. I'm not a big fan of the Iphone, but the true power of the Iphone is finally realized by a 2.7 million customer net add. Now, I'm absolutely sure that Verizon's kicking themselves after turning down Apple's offer of the Iphone. The Iphone single-handedly brought in more than 50% of that 2.7milli. Anyone have any ideas of how Verizon fared this past quarter?

How many of the adds were from buying out cellular one?


Do they even count?
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lilgabe1

Jan 24, 2008, 12:40 PM
I've seen that as an estimate. Do you have a link showing that this is what the actually announced?
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crackberry

Jan 24, 2008, 1:08 PM
http://www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=4800&cdvn=news ... »

Fourth-Quarter Operational Highlights

Wireless

In the fourth quarter, AT&T delivered strong wireless growth with record gross subscriber additions, reduced subscriber churn, solid mid-teens percentage growth in revenues and robust growth in operating income. These results reflect the company's broad high-quality network, attractive handset selection, extensive sales reach and continued improvements in operations.

In the fourth quarter, AT&T achieved:

Record Wireless Subscriber Gains. AT&T's net gain of 2.7 million wireless subscribers was the highest quarterly subscriber increase ever for any U.S. wireless provider, up 13.5 percent from 2.4 million net a...
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michael_herc

Jan 24, 2008, 8:31 PM
And actually AT&T made a mistake by saying that they added 1.7 million subscribers from Dobson. That is how many Dobson had before AT&T had to divest some of those areas to Verizon. The actual count was lower and for some reason AT&T included all of Dobson's customers in their 70.1 million, which is a big mistake.
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SystemShock

Jan 24, 2008, 3:16 PM
Congratulations, Steve Jobs. You probably increased ATT's net adds by 1 million this quarter.

ATT's churn is still way higher than Verizon's, at 1.7%, though, so 'ATT is still ATT', if ya know what I mean. But I'm sure they don't care toooooo much what with the money pouring in. 😉

And yeah, VZW execs are probably kicking themselves a bit for passing on the iPhone. After all, Apple did offer it to them first. But VZW didn't like the terms.
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BeachSlapped

Jan 24, 2008, 5:24 PM
i knew you'd come up with some stupid come back like that. why is it so hard for you to admit that it's att who's on top of its game now? this whole 'att is still att' is outdated. why not coming up with something new? oh, post paid churn is at 1.2% not too far from 0.9% is it? once again you're not reading the numbers well.
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SystemShock

Jan 24, 2008, 6:52 PM
BeachSlapped said:
i knew you'd come up with some stupid come back like that. why is it so hard for you to admit that it's att who's on top of its game now?


Because they're not, it's all about Apple. ATT hasn't improved much at all. Your overall churn is down 0.1% from the year-ago quarter (from 1.8 to 1.7%). Wooo... wake the kids, call the neighbors. And you still come in third out of the Big Four in JD Power and Consumer Reports nearly every time. 🙄

So, you honestly think you'd have net adds like that without the iPhone? That's delusional. 2 million iPhones got sold in the US in Q4, and stats show that about half of iPhone buyers come from non-ATT carriers to ATT. The iPhone was good for ...
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RUFF1415

Jan 24, 2008, 7:42 PM
Shock, even without the iPhone AT&T would have performed just as well as Verizon did this quarter. You've been in denial for too long...don't you think it's high time to give AT&T credit where credit is due? I know you know somewhere, deep down inside, that it is indeed due.
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SystemShock

Jan 24, 2008, 7:55 PM
RUFF1415 said:
Shock, even without the iPhone AT&T would have performed just as well as Verizon did this quarter. You've been in denial for too long...don't you think it's high time to give AT&T credit where credit is due? I know you know somewhere, deep down inside, that it is indeed due.


Without the iPhone, they would've gotten 1.7 million net adds. Which, yeah, it less than Verizon likely got. And with lots higher churn.

I'm not saying they're the same as they were in '04. But as good as VZW? Nope.

Again, congratulations to Steve Jobs. He did a helluva job. 😎
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sangyup81

Jan 25, 2008, 1:39 AM
Seems you two are running on different numbers. Shock, you're saying the iPhone was 1 million net adds while there are other numbers out there that say the iPhone was 800k new adds.

If it was 800k, then at&t would have added 1.9 million without the iPhone. And yes, I know its not all post-paid. We know that.
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SystemShock

Jan 25, 2008, 2:41 AM
If you go with primus' 40% are new customers stat, 800k of the net adds being due to the iPhone seems to be right. I've also heard the 'half' figure though, which is why I said 1 million.

And yes, as you mention, a ton of ATT's net adds in general were prepaid.
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AvgJoe

Jan 25, 2008, 6:12 PM
Excuses are fun arent they

All those "pre paid" "IF it were not for the iPhone blah blah.....excuses and rationaization.
The fact is GSM is the world network and will always be. Verizon may be "gettig it" since they announced "open source" phones. Now why would they do that for the 1% like me who only buy unlocked unbranded European phones?

Face Verizon is not King of the Hill and will never be so again.

Most Verizon fan boys believe Verizon is the best and can't get any better.

Well ATT CAN and is getting better all the time. With phones, network and yes even customer service. Verizon will never eclipse ATT in NEW subscriber growth and total subscribers. Deal with it.
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SystemShock

Jan 25, 2008, 10:04 PM
Yawn... when I want to hear from an idiot, I'll give George Bush a call... 😛
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Mordikar

Jan 29, 2008, 1:38 PM
!) VZW normally does beat AT&T in retail adds. This quarter no we did. Shrug. And you can not really tell me that the I-phone had nothing to do with those numbers. The I-phone is the leading driver of chrun to AT&T from other carriers. It's the in thing and we all know that aple has zombie like zealots that will buy anything with the aple logo on it.

Is AT&T getting beter? Yers they are.they really are improving their network.They finally woke up nd realized that the spiffyiset phoens and nice prices will not replace the fact that if i can't call an AT&T customer with out the call droping 5 times in 10 minutes i'n NOT gonna buy an AT&T phone. So yeah they are improving. Their rep was so bad they really had no choice.

Is post-paid ret...
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texaswireless

Jan 29, 2008, 12:42 AM
What is Verizon's number one selling phone since June 07?
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lilgabe1

Jan 24, 2008, 9:43 PM
I'm a VZW fan. I'm happy to see ATT provide some comp. Now VZW will strive EVEN HARDER to continue being the recognized market leader and aggressively pursue customers!
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primus

Jan 24, 2008, 11:15 PM
AT&T only added 1.178mil retail postpaid. 750k were prepaid and 747k were resellers.

While 1.928 net retail adds is impressive.. VZW had 1.8mil net retail adds in 3Q 2007. So unless VZW somehow bombed bigtime for 4Q it would mean AT&T is still failing behind.
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texaswireless

Jan 29, 2008, 12:39 AM
I can tell you quite a few VZW agents and employees that would love to have a competitive prepaid offer. While prepaid may not be under any long term agreement it is still highly profitable for both the agent/employees and the carrier.
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primus

Jan 24, 2008, 10:54 PM
Per other news releases there are a little over 2mil iphones on AT&T network and only about 40% of those were new adds, the rest were current customers. So only about 300-500k of those 1.2mil postpaid were iphone people.
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SystemShock

Jan 25, 2008, 12:06 AM
primus said:
Per other news releases there are a little over 2mil iphones on AT&T network and only about 40% of those were new adds, the rest were current customers. So only about 300-500k of those 1.2mil postpaid were iphone people.


Mm.... something's wrong there. Jobs at Macworld last week stated that Apple had sold 4 million iPhones, total.

Estimates are that only about 400k of those were in Europe (where the iPhone has only been available for a short time), the rest in the US.

Unlocked and yet-to-be-activated phones will skew the numbers some, but still, there's a discrepancy there.
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RUFF1415

Jan 25, 2008, 2:23 AM
System, I think you're missing the part where he said that most of the sold iPhones were accounted for by already existing AT&T customers...not new adds.
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SystemShock

Jan 25, 2008, 2:37 AM
RUFF1415 said:
System, I think you're missing the part where he said that most of the sold iPhones were accounted for by already existing AT&T customers...not new adds.


No, what he said was that 40% of iPhones were new customers.

Apple sold 2.3 million iPhones in Q4 (and 4 million total since its intro in June). Something like 300-400k of that 2.3 mil were sold in Europe. That leaves roughly 2 million US iPhone sales in Q4.

40% of that is new customers brought in by the iPhone in Q4, which works out to 800,000, i.e. a LOT.

Where me and primus differ is on a stat that's making the rounds at various Mac websites, where its claimed that only 2 million iPhones are on ATT's network. But, given Apple's...
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hrmles1

Jan 24, 2008, 5:44 PM
Impressive, yet the true barometer of success is the churn rate. How many of those 2.7 million will leave once they've experienced AT&T's network. The I-phone has brought people in but will it alone be enough to keep the new customers loyal to AT&T? I think not!!
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BeachSlapped

Jan 24, 2008, 6:02 PM
With churn at a record low of 1.2% Yes! They'll stay!
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SystemShock

Jan 24, 2008, 6:58 PM
BeachSlapped said:
With churn at a record low of 1.2% Yes! They'll stay!

1.2%, for postpaid only. Overall, its 1.7% churn, i.e. not much of an improvement from a year ago, when ATT's overall churn was 1.8%.

You guys got a-ways to go still... Verizon tends to do 0.9% postpaid churn, and 1.2% overall.
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RUFF1415

Jan 24, 2008, 7:43 PM
How many iPhone users do you know on prepaid plans?
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SystemShock

Jan 24, 2008, 7:58 PM
RUFF1415 said:
How many iPhone users do you know on prepaid plans?


What's your point? That the iPhone will somehow automagically bring ATT's postpaid churn down to VZW levels? Nope.

The iPhone may get them in the front door, but ATT's service still has to keep them there.
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vz_wireless

Jan 24, 2008, 8:26 PM
still low. Resellers/prepaid make up diff. Basically all of the Verizon adds are direct post paid. The most valued customer that spends more and churns less. I believe Verizon's revenue/profit will still exceed ATTs on a quarterly basis... we'll see.
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lilgabe1

Jan 24, 2008, 9:44 PM
I agree 100 percent with everything in your post.
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primus

Jan 24, 2008, 10:09 PM
Not to mention with the iphone sales accounting for about 800k of those 1.2mil adds, that means AT&T isnt make much money off of those adds. Not to mention the other 1.2mil exsisting customers that got iphones that they are paying apple for. At least AT&T gets a fair bit of cash from the hardwear sales on the iphones, because they arnt making much for the subscriptions.
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primus

Jan 24, 2008, 10:52 PM
correction, there were about 800k total iphone adds, that wasnt just 4th quarter. oops
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chainmail311

Jan 24, 2008, 8:38 PM
I've heard rumors that Apple went to Verizon first, but wait. I don't get it. If it's a GSM phone, did Apple go to Verizon before any type of development started? or is it really easy to make a phone CDMA to GSM?
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primus

Jan 24, 2008, 10:37 PM
Its a GSM phone because VZW said no.
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chainmail311

Jan 25, 2008, 1:12 AM
you didn't answer my questions.
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izzymac83

Jan 25, 2008, 8:47 AM
They have went to Verizon before they had finish developing the iphone
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chainmail311

Jan 25, 2008, 4:00 PM
Ah. Where is the proof that Verizon said no to them!? Not that I think you're lying. I just want to know why Verizon turned down a massive deal like that.
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chocolateman85006

Jan 25, 2008, 4:13 PM
There are actually several threads about it both here, and on at&t's forum.
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AvgJoe

Jan 25, 2008, 6:04 PM
chainmail311 said:
Ah. Where is the proof that Verizon said no to them!? Not that I think you're lying. I just want to know why Verizon turned down a massive deal like that.

Why is that so hard to believe. VEriaon wanta total control. Control over file transfers, GUI, network use, Phones......You rerally think they would give Apple control over even the GUI?

I think not. Think Red. Think Communist, Think Verizon.

BTW Here's your "proof"

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2007-01-28-verizon ... »
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chainmail311

Jan 25, 2008, 6:24 PM
well, they just basically shot themselves in the foot on that one, huh?
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SystemShock

Jan 25, 2008, 10:13 PM
AvgJoe said:
Why is that so hard to believe. VEriaon wanta total control. Control over file transfers, GUI, network use, Phones......You rerally think they would give Apple control over even the GUI?

I think not. Think Red. Think Communist, Think Verizon.


Another inaccurate, uninformed criticism from AvgJoe/Myron. Tsk. Sad. 😲

If you'd bothered researching the subject instead of launching into your lame "VZW is commie!" speech, you'd know that the real reason VZW said no to Apple had to do with the fact that Apple insisted on being the ones to offer support for the iPhone, instead of VZW, thus getting between VZW and its customers. I'm sure VZW didn't exactly love Apple's financial terms either.
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sangyup81

Jan 25, 2008, 10:34 AM
It seems like it's general knowledge that Postpaid makes more money than Prepaid but are there some figures out there that can show me how big the difference is? Anyone know? Thanks in advance!
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chocolateman85006

Jan 25, 2008, 4:11 PM
Ironically, I have at&t and greatly dislike the iPhone. Verizon, I must admit, is better for not getting it.
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AvgJoe

Jan 25, 2008, 6:18 PM
f38urry said:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/01/25/iphone_numbe ... »
Yes it does. There are a lot of unlocked iPhones being used but not "counted"

If I am not an ATT customer and I want an iPhone I buy one unlocked. Then I start new service with ATT and get my subsidized phone. When it comes I switch the SIM card to the iPHone and I am counted as a new activation but a NON iPhone activaton.

If I am already an ATT customer I buy the iPhone and switch my card in and stay month to month again with no iPhone activation on record.

If I am with T mobile the same applies.

There are a ton of people who know how easy it is to switch phones on the GSM networks.

I know its hard for you Verizo...
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mitchell1

Jan 25, 2008, 9:34 PM
AvgJoe said:
f38urry said:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/01/25/iphone_numbe ... »
Yes it does. There are a lot of unlocked iPhones being used but not "counted"

If I am not an ATT customer and I want an iPhone I buy one unlocked. Then I start new service with ATT and get my subsidized phone. When it comes I switch the SIM card to the iPHone and I am counted as a new activation but a NON iPhone activaton.

If I am already an ATT customer I buy the iPhone and switch my card in and stay month to month again with no iPhone activation on record.

If I am with T mobile the same applies.

There are a ton of people who know how easy it is to switch phones on the GSM networks.
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hrmles1

Jan 29, 2008, 7:10 PM
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SystemShock

Jan 26, 2008, 3:39 PM
bkw79 said:
2.7 million Net Adds!!!! More than any other wireless customer. I'm not a big fan of the Iphone, but the true power of the Iphone is finally realized by a 2.7 million customer net add.


Whoa... digging a bit deeper, it wasn't just the iPhone. Apparently, 1.5 million of those 2.675 million net adds were PREPAID, only than 1.17 million were contract.

From the ATT Financial Results doc (pg. 9):


Net Add Detail

Post-paid Net Adds 1,178k
Pre-paid Net Adds 750k
Reseller Net Adds 747k (i.e. Tracfone prepaid)


http://www.att.com/Investor/Growth_Profile/download/ ... »


The funny thing? Even with ATT's so-called 'monster quarter', VZ...
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Sprint_Dew

Jan 26, 2008, 5:40 PM
I don't really care about the numbers game, but I do like keeping up with what the two big dogs are doing...it seems like another win for Verizon then , all those Trac phones Go phones aren't nearly as good as verizon's post paid numbers I would think. Does verizon still have the higher ARPU and more post paid customers then?
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ygbhen

Jan 26, 2008, 5:45 PM
I think the reason you see a spike in numbers has more to do with the holidays than dependent on prepaid. It also goes to show you that AT&T has an attractive product with its Gophone as well. Considering how low their churn is with the number of prepaid subscribers they have, it seems to work well for them.
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Green Jeep

Jan 26, 2008, 5:51 PM
While the Post Paid stuff is always great and I am not much of a fan of Pre-paid for the churn, loyalty and ARPU reason, I would hazard a guess that after the Sprint carcass picking is over (or Sprint redirects in a forward direction), that Pre-Paid will be the next battle ground. Bad news for VZ is that no attention has been paid to this space from the carrier and other carriers have more well branded Pre-Paid than VZW.

Good news for VZ is that this means a rock solid retail subs position and the semi-envious position of being able to grow in Pre-Paid since so little exists for VZ. With the volitility of that market and the ability to pick up from other carriers in a high churn segment, Verizon only has one way to go in that space, up.
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SystemShock

Jan 26, 2008, 6:50 PM
Green Jeep said:
While the Post Paid stuff is always great and I am not much of a fan of Pre-paid for the churn, loyalty and ARPU reason, I would hazard a guess that after the Sprint carcass picking is over (or Sprint redirects in a forward direction), that Pre-Paid will be the next battle ground.

Bad news for VZ is that no attention has been paid to this space from the carrier and other carriers have more well branded Pre-Paid than VZW.

Good news for VZ is that this means a rock solid retail subs position and the semi-envious position of being able to grow in Pre-Paid since so little exists for VZ. With the volitility of that market and the ability to pick up from other carriers in a high churn segment, Verizon on
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Green Jeep

Jan 26, 2008, 7:23 PM
SystemShock said:
Great analysis. 😎

My only Q mark is that, so far, Verizon has shown little interest in truly competing in pre-paid. I have to wonder if they're just happy with things the way they are, and will always be giving prepaid folks the brush-off.


Thank you... 😁

I wonder that too (brush off or not).

I'm taking an educated guess at my Pre-Paid thoughts that this might see more action. It can be a revenue driver if done right.

I did predict the Cingy/at&t merger a year before the initial rumblings...

...and then again, I said the Prince fella will have no career the first time I ever saw him on TV in 1980-ish...
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primus

Jan 28, 2008, 11:21 PM
If you take a look at their 4th quarter results from 2006 you will see that they had about the same prepaid/reseller adds, so really they did improve as they had about 600k more postpaid adds than they did the previous year.
Remember, that was the big joke last year that Tracphone had more new customers than AT&T had new postpaid customers? ;)

but yeah, it still comes down to that if it wasnt for all the resellers AT&T wouldnt have had close to the net adds they did.
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SystemShock

Jan 29, 2008, 2:23 PM
The 600k additional was the 'iPhone effect', pretty much.

And I'm still surprised that ATT was so overly dependent on prepaid for their results, even with the iPhone helping them out. 😳
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MidnightDT

Jan 27, 2008, 1:26 AM
Impressive quarter.
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85percent

Jan 27, 2008, 3:23 AM
Impressive quarter for prepaid. 🤣
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primus

Jan 28, 2008, 11:23 PM
its impressive for them for postpaid even, the 1.2mil is like their highest ever.
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