Rumor Mill

You're assuming that people will only switch if they can keep their phone, which is silly. Many - if not most - people will be happy to switch their phone as well.

People with low-end phones probably got their current phone for free and will also get their new phone for free - they couldn't care less.

People with higher-end phones will probably see it as an opportunity to get a newer, better phone anyway.

If you're willing to switch phones, there is no "barrier" at all. Anyone will be able to switch from a TDMA to a GSM carrier, or CDMA GSM, or whatever.

The compatibility barrier you talked about is just shameless FUD in the part of your employer. Don't buy it, and please stop spreading it.

With that said, you did bring up the very valid point of cancellation fees. November 24th won't magically release people from their contracts. I think a lot of people don't realize they will still need to wait for their contract to expire before they can switch without penalty. That is a good point.