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AT&T Doesn't See Sprint/T-Mobile Merger Happening

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Jun 18, 2014, 11:37 AM

At some point the industry WILL go from 4 to 3

Nobody wants to admit it but there will be consolidation, either through M&A activity or through bankruptcy. There are multiple elephants in the room:

+/- 85% of profits in wireless are earned by VZW/T and the remains are split between TMUS/S and a litany of regional operators. That in itself proves that there are hardly 4 viable competitors. There are 2 national competitors and 2 that are holding on for dear life. Say all you want about customer acquisitions but in a mature market (like the U.S.) the vast majority of those acquisitions are subscribers moving providers at the expense of one another. Sure there are increases in low value data and pre-paid lines, but they aren't moving the financial needle.

TMUS is spending gob...
Your posts are usually insightful. Thanks.
Excellent analysis.

It's clear that Stephenson is trying to poison the well for this deal. He, of course, ignores one very important distinction: a combined T and T-mo would have had a huge market share. A combined S and T-mo would not. Even if reg...
Well written and well said.
I agree. The fact is that Tmobile and Sprint are smaller players and have much easier credit requirements than ATT or VZW. If either Sprint or Tmob go under, a majority of their subs would head to the other instead of dropping a $400 deposit at ATT or...
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