CTIA Wireless 2004
CTIA Wireless is the cellular industry event for North America. This year's show was the backdrop for some truly exciting announcements, including the first WCDMA and EV-DO phones for the U.S. Several predictable themes emerged, plus a few surprising ones. And, as usual, there were some disappointing no-shows.
3G: It's Finally Here!
The two biggest announcements at the show were the first two true 3G phones for the U.S. The Motorola A845 will run on AT&T's new WCDMA 1900 network, and the LG VX-8000 will run on Verizon's new 1xEV-DO network. Both networks will be up and running in a handful of cities by the end of the year, offering considerably faster data speeds than the competition.
Unfortunately, the upgrade to 3G may require an upgrade to larger pockets as well - both phones are definitely on the big side. I also got a sneak peek at some other 3G phones in the pipeline for the U.S., and they were pretty big, too. So at least initially, size will be the major tradeoff for those who want to be on the bleeding edge with 3G.
But if you can make room in your pockets, there's a lot to like about these phones. Both phones include a long list of advanced features, including cameras, streaming video, and MP3 capabilities. In other words, these phones aren't just 3G for the sake of 3G - they include all the features you could want to really take advantage of all that extra speed.
The Unholy Marriage: CDMA and GSM
Okay - maybe "unholy" is a strong word - but in the worldwide battle between CDMA and GSM technology, things are about to get a little more interesting. Two phones were announced at the show this year that include both CDMA and GSM technology.
Is this is a sign of things to come? Will all new phones be made this way? Is the battle finally over? Unfortunately, the answer to all of those questions is no - not really. These phones address a very specific niche - CDMA users who want a world phone they can use overseas.
The Motorola A840 and Samsung SCH-A790 are the two phones. Both phones are capable of using CDMA networks in the U.S., and GSM networks overseas. They can't use domestic GSM networks - that's not the point.
Both phones are stylish, high-end clamshells with dual color displays and cameras with flash. These phones are - by definition - targeted at the jet set, not the mass market. Both phones are on the big side, but not nearly as big as the 3G phones.
Between the two, I would definitely give the edge to the Motorola. The A840 has a megapixel camera, a removable memory card slot, and MP3 playback. But more importantly, it has GPRS, so you can do things like send photos via MMS while on your overseas trip. The Samsung is strictly a voice-only phone in GSM mode.
Bluetooth, Baby!
After years of begging, petitions, and false starts, it looks like the stars have finally aligned for serious CDMA phones with Bluetooth. Nokia and Motorola both announced Bluetooth-enabled CDMA phones at this year's CTIA.
For the last couple of years, CDMA carriers have insisted that the demand just wasn't there for Bluetooth. But now the demand seems to be slowly revving, spurred by something interesting: cars with Bluetooth.
Auto makers have started to adopt Bluetooth in a big way, especially in the luxury market. The issue for the carriers is that proud owners of a new Acura or BMW want a phone that will work with their car's Bluetooth handsfree feature. If those customers can't get such a phone, they're likely to jump ship to a carrier that offers Bluetooth phones (especially now that number portability makes switching easy).
Companies like Verizon can't let some of their best customers (like BMW and Acura owners) walk out the door over something like that, so now - finally - we're seeing real CDMA phones with Bluetooth.
The Motorola V710 is one of these new phones. The main advantages are the megapixel camera and the fact that it will probably be first to market. It supports three Bluetooth profiles: Headset, Handsfree (for cars), and Dial-Up Networking (for laptops and PDAs). For most users, that pretty much covers the main uses for Bluetooth.
But hardcore Bluetooth fans may want to hold out for the Nokia 6255i, with its more complete Bluetooth implementation. The 6255i supports profiles like Object Push and File Transfer, which let you easily exchange things like contacts and photos with other Bluetooth devices.
The 6255i is also smaller. Otherwise, the two phones have a lot in common, including dual color displays, cameras with flashes, removable memory cards, video recording and streaming playback, and MP3 playback.
The Summer of Megapixel
Megapixel camera phones have been on the horizon for about a year now, but a lot of people assumed that it would take a few years for them to reach U.S. shores. Fortunately, that's not the case. Megapixel camera phones are coming, and in a big way. A lot of megapixel hardware was shown at CTIA this year, and about half of it should hit the market all in one wave - around mid-year - making this the summer of megapixel.
The big deal about megapixel is simply quality. On a computer screen, megapixel photos are bigger, with much more detail. And unlike VGA photos, megapixel photos can be printed out at standard photo size and actually look half-decent. With megapixel, we can finally put to rest the idea that a camera in a phone is just a gimmick.
The four megapixel phones that will probably hit the market first are the Kyocera Koi, the Audiovox 8920, the Nokia 7610, and the Motorola V710. The race looks extremely tight for who will actually be first to market; the ones that don't ship in June or July, should be out shortly thereafter. By the end of the year, nearly every manufacturer and every carrier should have a megapixel model shipping.
The other major advance in the area of camera phones is video recording. Video-capable phones were almost non-existent at last year's show, while this year they're everywhere, with a good number of models already on the market. It's the same story with LED flashes on new camera phones. It's utterly amazing how quickly trends like this can sweep through the industry and reach the market.
O EDGE, EDGE! wherefore art thou EDGE?
Last year, I recall being shocked that no new EDGE phones were announced at the show. This year, the silence was even more deafening. With EDGE networks now launched and operational, I really expected at least a few new EDGE phones this year. (For those who don't know, EDGE is an upgrade to GPRS that triples data speeds.)
Of course, there are a few EDGE phones that have already been announced, and even some already shipping. The biggest EDGE commitment by far has come from Nokia, who is already shipping the 6200, 3200, and 6820 EDGE phones, and has the 6620, 7200, 6230, and 5140 on the way.
Unfortunately, Nokia is pretty much the only game in town at the moment. Sony Ericsson recently announced the Z500a, which should be a solid entry, and Motorola has the T725e on the way. Then again, Motorola announced the T725e in January - of 2003...
I did spot the Samsung SGH-P716 EDGE phone toward the end of the show, tucked away in a small corner of the Samsung booth. It hasn't officially been announced yet, but it was there. It looks like a sweet phone, with dual TFT color displays, a swivel VGA camera with video recording, and SyncML.
Siemens also promised an EDGE phone by the end of the year, and yet another manufacturer gave me a sneak preview of an upcoming EDGE model. So it's not like EDGE is at a standstill, but I really expected at least a couple official phone announcements at the show.
Stealth Trends
Two new phone trends that not many people are talking about, but seem major to me, are MP3 playback and removable memory cards. Of course, the two are linked, since memory cards are the only practical way to store more than a handful of MP3s in a phone.
Memory cards are popping up in phones everywhere. At first, it was just smartphones, with Series 60 phones sporting MMC slots, and Windows Mobile Smartphones sporting SD slots. But now, memory cards are quickly getting smaller and creeping into the "feature phone" category.
The Motorola E398, V710, and A840 all have slots for the new TransFlash card format. (TransFlash had a bit an identity crisis recently, being called T-Flash last month, and TriFlash-R the month before. Hopefully this name will stick.) The big deal about TransFlash is the size (no pun intended) - it's really tiny - about half the size of a SIM card.
Other new feature phones coming soon with removable cards include the Nokia 6255i (MMC format) and the Sony Ericsson S700 (Memory Stick Duo). MiniSD and RS-MMC are other formats with serious traction, making for quite a mess in the war of the card formats.
Speaking of the Nokia 6255i, while it has a full-size MMC card slot, it will probably be the last such phone from Nokia. The company recently started a transition to the smaller RS-MMC format with the 7610, and they told us they're committed to that format going forward.
Like I mentioned earlier, the rise of memory cards is closely linked to the rise of MP3 player features. The wild success of Apple's iPod has re-ignited the whole concept of music-on-the-go, forcing phone makers to re-examine the whole MP3 thing, after basically abandoning it about 3 years ago. (Who else remembers the Samsung Uproar and the Siemens SL45?)
There are other uses for memory cards, though, such as transferring megapixel photos and long video clips. And once you add a card slot for those functions, adding MP3 playback is a no-brainer, since it's mostly just a software feature.
So the upshot is: MP3 playback and memory cards have a very symbiotic relationship when it comes to phones. The combination is compelling, and it dovetails nicely with other trends in the industry. Expect to see more of these features throughout the year.
Final Thoughts
The other trends and themes at the show were fairly obvious. For example, while slide-style models were all the rage last year, swivel is this year's hot form factor. The Kyocera Koi, Motorola V80, and Sony Ericsson S700 are the three major swivel models in the pipeline. It will be interesting to see what the industrial designers come up with for next year.
Another trend seems to be low cost. Especially on the GSM side, all of the manufacturers are being pressured by the carriers to release cheaper phones, to meet the unrealistic price expectations of U.S. consumers.
For example, price pressure forced Sony Ericsson to put a passive display in the Z500a, a phone that really deserves better. Price is also the reason the excellent Motorola E398 probably won't be released here. And finally, price is the main selling point of Nixxo, a company that seems to be on the verge of a big North American debut.
And finally, as always, displays keep getting bigger and more colorful. While 128 x 160 pixels was the standard resolution last year, 176 x 220 is this year's new standard, with QVGA (240 x 320) starting to show up as well. In fact, the LG VX-8000 sports 128 x 160 resolution on its secondary, external display!
A lot of displays this year are also capable of showing 262,000 colors, compared to last year's 65,000. It's pretty hard to tell the difference, though - 65,000 colors is a lot, and renders photos just fine. Better technologies - such as TFT and TFD compared to STN - make much more of a difference.
One disappointment was the lack of any phones with an OLED main display. OLED is the "next big thing" in displays after LCD, but every year it remains elusive, still cropping up only in small external displays. One promising sign was the new Samsung i550, which sports the biggest and most colorful OLED external display to date. It's really beautiful, showing amazingly vivid colors no matter what angle you look at it - fulfilling the promise of OLED. I'm confident that next year will finally see a phone with a full-size OLED display.
So to sum up, I'd say the three big phone trends for 2004 are 3G, megapixel cameras, and memory cards. Combine those with swivel designs, EDGE, video, and QVGA displays, and 2004 is shaping up to be a truly exciting year for phone technology. I say bring it on!
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